200 ft down (M1, 60 m)
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Ocean
El Niño in Monterey Bay
The bay right now against normal. Explanations follow the numbers.
Surface water at the bay buoys
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Sea above the tide table
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Bay surface vs normal (satellite)
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Solid lines are measured. Dashed lines are the normal for the time of year.
The El Niño signal 200 ft down
Loading the 60 m record…
The 60 m normal is the 2018–2025 average for this week, worked out by us from the mooring's own 2018 to 2025 record: a short baseline, not a 30-year climate normal. M1 data
What El Niño is
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural climate pattern across the tropical Pacific. It comes and goes irregularly, every two to seven years on average, and can affect weather around the world. NOAA Climate.gov
In a normal year the trade winds blow west along the equator, from South America toward Asia. They pile warm surface water up in the western Pacific, so the thermocline (the boundary between warm surface water and cold deep water) sits deep in the west and slopes up toward the east, where cold water rises near South America. NOAA NOAA PMEL
In an El Niño year the trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back east toward the Americas, the thermocline flattens (it sinks in the east and rises in the west), and upwelling brings less cold water to the surface in the east. NOAA NOAA PMEL
Monterey Bay in cross-section
In summer, winds blow from the north along the coast. They push surface water offshore, and cold, nutrient-rich water rises from below to take its place. This is upwelling. The nutrients fertilize the surface water, which is why upwelling coasts are rich in life. NOAA NOAA
This year the thermocline has deepened. That pushes the nutrient-rich water below the depth upwelling reaches, so upwelled water is warmer and poorer in nutrients. MBARI
On 26 Oct 2026 MBARI's M1 mooring measured 64.7 °F (18.18 °C) at 60 m (about 200 ft) down, beating the record set on 19 Nov 1997 in an earlier El Niño. MBARI MBARI's data show temperatures more than 7 °C (12.6 °F) above the long-term average. MBARI
What it changes here
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Water warmer
Record-warm water 200 ft down, more than 7 °C (12.6 °F) above the long-term average. MBARI
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Sea level up
About 16 cm (6 in) higher. The tide table leaves that out, so tides run above it. MBARI
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Whales feeding closer to shore
In El Niño years their feeding grounds are compressed near the coast. MBARI
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Warm-water visitors
Winged comb jelly, halfmoon fish, pelagic red crabs, even Humboldt squid. MBARI
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Biggest effects in spring
The strongest effects on sea life are expected in spring. MBARI
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Forecasts less reliable
No forecast, ours or anyone's, can be relied on this season; read the measurements. our call
Warm-water visitors have turned up: a winged comb jelly and a rose siphonophore west of Davidson Seamount, schools of halfmoon fish at M1, juvenile pelagic red crabs, and a quick glimpse of several Humboldt squid. MBARI
What comes next
- Now
El Niño reaches the bay
By late October 2026 El Niño had reached Monterey Bay, with record-warm water about 200 ft down. MBARI
- Winter
The warmest water
El Niño brings the warmest water to the bay in winter. MBARI
- Spring
The strongest biological effects
MBARI expects the strongest biological effects in spring. MBARI
- After
The effects linger for months
The warmest water comes in winter, but the effects linger for several months. MBARI
This is what MBARI expects, not a forecast of ours.
Sources and further reading
- MBARI: researchers observe the arrival of El Niño in Monterey Bay (29 Oct 2026)
- NOAA National Ocean Service: What are El Niño and La Niña?
- NOAA Climate.gov: El Niño and La Niña (ENSO)
- NOAA PMEL: What is El Niño? (the thermocline in a normal and an El Niño year)
- NOAA National Ocean Service: What is upwelling?
- NOAA National Ocean Service: Upwelling along the West Coast (currents tutorial)
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO diagnostic discussion (the official status)
- CalOOS California El Niño dashboard
- CeNCOOS, the Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System
- MBARI M1 mooring via CeNCOOS (60 m water temperature, ERDDAP dataset org_mbari_m1)
- NASA JPL MUR sea surface temperature anomaly via NOAA CoastWatch ERDDAP
60 m water temperature: MBARI M1 mooring via CeNCOOS. Buoy water temperatures: NOAA NDBC. Tide gauge: NOAA CO-OPS Monterey 9413450. Free to use with credit; we add nothing to the measurements.